(First publish in French on Libre Média)
On August 26, 2025, the Canadian government took a decisive step in the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) by selecting two qualified suppliers to replace the aging Victoria-class submarine fleet of the Royal Canadian Navy. Announced by Prime Minister Mark Carney during a press conference in Berlin alongside German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the shortlist includes Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) and South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean.
The project aims to acquire up to 12 conventional submarines, with an estimated budget of at least 60 billion Canadian dollars (approximately 44 billion US dollars), according to analysts, though the government has not yet disclosed official figures. This decision follows a request for information launched in September 2024 and closed in February 2025, which received 25 responses from international companies.
The Urgency of Ensuring Arctic Sovereignty
The current fleet of four Victoria-class submarines, purchased second-hand from the United Kingdom in 1998, is nearing the end of its operational life in the 2030s. These diesel-electric submarines, with a displacement of 2,300 tons, have faced recurring maintenance issues, limiting their operational availability. The CPSP aims to prevent any gap in submarine capabilities, with the delivery of the first unit by 2035 at the latest and initial operational capability by 2037.
Canada’s requirements are clear: the new submarines must operate under Arctic ice for weeks, conduct stealthy patrols over 3,500 nautical miles, and be equipped with heavy torpedoes, anti-ship cruise missiles, and precision strike capabilities. They will be tasked with underwater surveillance across Canada’s three oceans, safeguarding Arctic sovereignty amid growing threats.
The Two Options Under Consideration by Canada
The German Option: TKMS’s Type 212CD
Developed jointly with Norway for cold-water operations, the Type 212CD is a diesel-electric submarine with air-independent propulsion (AIP) using hydrogen fuel cells, enabling silent submersion for up to three weeks without snorkeling. Its specifications include a length of 73 meters, a displacement of 2,500 tons surfaced and 2,800 tons submerged, a beam of 10 meters, and a speed exceeding 20 knots submerged. It is equipped with four torpedo tubes and emphasizes minimal acoustic signature through an amagnetic steel design and near-vibration-free propulsion. TKMS offers technology transfer, the establishment of a maintenance facility in Canada, and the potential delivery of the first unit as early as 2032-2033 by reallocating a vessel intended for Germany or Norway.
The South Korean Option: Hanwha Ocean’s KSS-III
Also equipped with AIP using lithium-ion batteries for rapid recharging and extended endurance, the KSS-III (Dosan Ahn Changho-class) is already in service with the South Korean Navy. Larger in size, it measures 83.5 meters in length, with a displacement of over 3,300 tons submerged, a beam of 9.6 meters, and a speed of 20 knots submerged. It features a vertical launch system (VLS) for six ballistic or cruise missiles and can carry a crew of 50 for 50-day missions. Hanwha promises accelerated delivery: four units before 2035 if the contract is signed in 2026, with the full fleet completed by 2043, alongside estimated savings of 1 billion dollars in Victoria-class maintenance costs. The company highlights industrial partnerships with Canadian firms in defense, aerospace, and critical minerals.
Both models meet basic stealth and endurance requirements, but differences emerge. The Type 212CD excels in Arctic operations due to its compact size and proven propulsion in cold waters, aligning with Canada’s under-ice patrol priorities. The KSS-III offers greater versatility with its VLS, potentially useful for extended Pacific missions, but its larger hull could complicate under-ice maneuvers, and it lacks experience in Arctic conditions. Strategically, the German option strengthens NATO ties and ensures immediate interoperability, while the South Korean option diversifies partnerships and promises faster delivery, avoiding European bottlenecks.
NATO Interoperability
Based on available facts, the German Type 212CD appears to be the most suitable option for Canada’s specific needs. Its design optimized for Arctic operations, proven stealth, and NATO integration closely align with Canada’s priorities for northern sovereignty and power projection in hostile environments. While the KSS-III offers advantages in terms of timelines and costs, the risks associated with its adaptation to under-ice operations and lack of NATO pedigree could compromise long-term effectiveness. The Canadian government, which plans in-depth negotiations by 2028, will need to weigh these factors for a balanced final decision.
